Rural Mainstreet Index Rises Above Growth Neutral 

August 2026 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
-The region’s overall reading rose above growth neutral for only the second time in the past six months. 
-Bank CEOs rated approximately 52.5% of farm borrowers in good condition.
-Approximately, 47.5% of bankers expect farm income to decline in the next 12 months.
-For the first time since April of this year, the farm and ranchland index fell below growth neutral. 
-For the 36th straight month, the farm equipment sales index fell below growth neutral. 
-As a result of weak farm equipment sales, bankers reported that borrowing to support farm equipment purchases accounted for only 5.3% of agriculture lending while real estate loans represented 52.6% of ag lending.
-According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first half of 2026 were $5.77 billion, compared to $5.38 billion for the same period in 2025, for a gain of 7.3%.
Regional exports to Mexico expanded from $3.09 billion to $3.14 billion (+1.6%).
Regional exports to China climbed from $117.8 million to $352.8 million (+199.5%). 
Regional exports of agriculture and livestock to Canada fell from $429.0 million to $427.7 million (-0.3%). 

OMAHA, Nebraska (August 20, 2026) - According to the August survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed slightly above growth neutral for only the second time in the past six months. 

Readings range between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral. 

Overall: The region’s overall reading for August rose to 50.3 from 42.1 in July.

 “Despite higher input costs and improved, but still relatively weak grain prices, bank CEOs rated approximately 52.5% of farm borrowers in good condition with the remaining 47.5% rated in fair condition,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Approximately, 47.5% of bankers expect farm income to decline in the next 12 months. Roughly 36.8% anticipate little or no change in farm income, while the remaining 15.7% expect a slight increase in farm income over the 12-month period. 

 Farming and ranchland prices: For the first time since April of this year, the farm and ranchland price index fell below growth neutral. The farm and ranchland index dropped to 47.2 from 52.8 in July. 

“Though farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm and ranching income, weak grain prices, lower farm liquidity and somewhat tougher credit standards have restrained growth in farmland values,” said Goss. 

 Farm equipment sales: The August farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 22.2 from July’s 27.8. This is the 36th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. 

“Tariffs on imported steel/aluminum and the conflict in Iran continue to create volatility in the agricultural sector. Producers are not as willing to purchase new farm equipment due to volatility, along with low and negative cash flows,” said Goss. 

As a result of weak farm equipment sales, bankers reported that borrowing to support farm equipment purchases accounted for only 5.3% of agriculture lending, while real estate loans represented 52.6% of ag lending. Operating loans accounted for 31.4%, livestock loans represented 5.6% and 5.1% accounted for other remaining loans as reported by bank CEOs in August. 

According to Todd Douglas, CEO of First National Bank in Pierre, South Dakota, “We have a good percentage of cattle ranchers which is helping to support our Ag lending operation. However, the increasing drought in Western South Dakota, Wyoming and Montana has made some or our borrowers start to liquidate their herds.” 

According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first half of 2026 were $5.77 billion, compared to $5.38 billion for the same period in 2025, for a gain of 7.3%. Regional exports of agricultural goods and livestock between 2025 and 2026 expanded by $3.09 billion to $3.14 billion (+1.6%) to Mexico, and $117.8 million to $352.8 million (+199.5%) to China. For the same comparison period, regional ag and livestock exports to Canada fell from $429.0 million to $427.7 million (-0.3%). 

Banking: The August loan volume index increased to 76.3 from 73.7 in July. The checking deposit index dropped to 39.5 in August from July’s 50.0. The region’s index for certificates of deposits (CDs) rose to 55.6 from 52.6 July. 

Hiring: The new hiring index for August was unchanged from July’s 50.1. The rural job market for farms, ranches and non-farm rural employers has remained weak for the last several months.

“In August, only 5.3% of bankers reported an increase in hiring for the month,” said Goss. 

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The August economic confidence index slumped to 31.6 from July’s 34.2. 

“Weak grain prices, higher input costs and volatility stemming from the Iran war and tariff uncertainty continue to weigh on banker confidence,” said Goss. 

Home and retail sales: Weak income from grain, combined with escalating input costs, spilled over into the housing and retail sales markets. The August home sales index fell to 42.1 from July’s 44.7. The regional retail sales index slumped to 41.1 from 41.6 in July. 

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.

Below are the state reports:

 Colorado: The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for August improved to 51.7 from July’s 41.5. The farm and ranchland price index for August declined to 48.4 from 52.3 July. The state’s new hiring index increased to 52.5 from 49.9 in July. According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), Colorado exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first half of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by $26.1 million for a 13.3% decline. The greatest downturn in Colorado ag exports were to Mexico with a 40.0% fall from 2025 to 2026. 

 Illinois: The state’s August Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) increased to 48.8 from 42.0 in July. The farm and ranchland price index for August sank to 46.7 from July’s 53.2. The state’s new hiring index for August slipped to 49.6 from July’s 50.7. As stated by Jim Eckert, Executive Vice President of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, “Recent rain has improved the prospects for the 2026 crop, but late planting due to spring rains and subsequent dry conditions appear to have hurt the crop, especially soybeans. Farmers remain concerned about low grain prices and higher input prices which threaten to produce operating losses.” According to trade data from the ITA, Illinois exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first half of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, expanded by $66.3 million for a 4.8% gain. The greatest upturn in Illinois ag exports were to Indonesia with a 34.5% gain from 2025 to 2026. 

Iowa: August’s RMI for the state increased to 46.2 from 41.4 in July. Iowa’s farm and ranchland price index for August slumped to 44.2 from 52.3 in July. Iowa’s new hiring index for August fell to 47.0 from July’s 49.9. According to trade data from the ITA, Iowa exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first half of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, expanded by $61.4 million for a 6.2% gain. The greatest upturn in Iowa ag exports were to Japan with a 24.5% gain from 2025 to 2026.

Kansas: The Kansas RMI for August expanded to 51.2 from July’s 43.7. The state’s farm and ranchland price index dropped to 48.9 from 55.5 in July. The new hiring index for Kansas dipped to 52.0 from 52.9 in July. According to trade data from the ITA, Kansas exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first half of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, soared by $392.5 million for a 54.7% gain. The greatest upturn in Kansas ag exports were to China with a 2,750% gain from 2025 to 2026.

 Minnesota: The August RMI for Minnesota improved to 53.6 from 42.1 in July. Minnesota’s farm and ranchland price index declined to 51.2 from July’s 53.2. The new hiring index for July increased to 54.4 from July’s 50.7. Bryan Grove, CEO of American State Bank of Grygla, reported that, “There is a lot of crop production variability in our part of the state. Some areas have adequate to excess moisture, other areas that are dry. Early yields vary from sub-par to excellent.” According to trade data from the ITA, Minnesota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first half of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, climbed by $131.0 million for a 28.7% gain. The greatest upturn in Minnesota ag exports were to Mexico with an 81.3% gain from 2025 to 2026.

 Missouri: The August RMI for the state expanded to 50.5 from 41.9 in July. The farm and ranchland price index for August decreased to 51.3 from 53.0 in July. The state’s new hiring gauge for August declined to 48.7 from 50.6 in July. According to trade data from the ITA, Missouri exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first half of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, slumped by $72.3 million for a 17.1% fall. The greatest downturn in Missouri ag exports were to Mexico with a 22.4% drop from 2025 to 2026.

Nebraska: The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index for August increased to 47.9 from 42.6 in July. The state’s farm and ranchland price index for August declined to 45.8 from 52.2 in July. Nebraska’s new hiring index fell to 48.7 from 49.8 in July. According to trade data from the ITA, Nebraska exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first half of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, slumped by $75.8 million for an 11.3% fall. The greatest downturn in Nebraska ag exports were to Canada with a 28.0% drop from 2025 to 2026.

North Dakota: The state’s overall RMI for August increased to 47.7 from July’s 40.1. The state’s farm and ranchland price index for August slumped to 45.6 from July’s 50.5. The state’s new hiring index rose to 48.5 from 48.2 in July. According to trade data from the ITA, North Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first half of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, slumped by $61.0 million for a 13.3% fall. The greatest downturn in North Dakota ag exports were to Mexico with a 21.2% drop from 2025 to 2026.

South Dakota: The August RMI for South Dakota climbed to 50.0 from 43.4 in July. The state’s farm and ranchland price index fell to 47.8 from July’s 55.0. South Dakota’s August new hiring index dipped to 50.8 from 52.5 in July. According to trade data from the ITA, South Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first half of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, slumped by $30.1 million for a 39.8% fall. The greatest downturn in North Dakota ag exports were to Mexico with a 50.5% drop from 2025 to 2026.

Wyoming: The overall RMI for Wyoming for August climbed to 51.8 from 39.0 in July. The August farm and ranchland price index increased to 49.5 from 48.9 in July. Wyoming’s new hiring index expanded to 52.6 from July’s 46.7. According to trade data from the ITA, Wyoming exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first half of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, rose by $7.1 million for a 144.1% gain. The greatest gain in Wyoming ag exports were to Canada with a 251.2% gain from 2025 to 2026.

Here is a recent interview with Ernie Goss and Rural Mainstreet Banker, Jim Eckert, Executive Vice President and Trust Officer at Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill.